7 Rules of Thumb in the New UK Politics
How should policy-campaigns organisations seek to engage as the Labour government takes up the reigns of power
With a different government entering power, the policy-campaigns sector will need to rethink its approach to political advocacy. Here are a few quick thoughts and 7 suggested rules of thumb for how we engage.
Labour’s Win
There’s been quite a lot written about how Labour’s win is broad and shallow and how it’s cast some progressives adrift and pushed them towards the Greens, but this is in part because the party did two things in its election-winning strategy:
1. Focussed campaigning efforts and budget on places it needed to build support and win (so probably lost aggregate support in places, such as most of the large cities, where in the last elections it piled up votes). This allowed the party to win a lot of seats without much of an increase in its vote share over 2019 – it’s a very efficient vote.
2. Reduced the opportunities for its policies being attacked by shrinking its fiscal ambitions to give off economically prudent vibes (which was aimed at economically liberal tory voters) and remaining hugely vague about almost everything else while sounding quite tough on the causes of things (which was aimed at socially conservative red wall type voters).
Despite lots of psephological analysis suggesting that this means Labour support is built on shifting sands (it’s been called the ‘sand castle majority’ by some), and of course some realities, such as the squeeze on Conservative votes by Reform, it nevertheless means Labour has set itself up for at least one almost completely unassailable Parliament (caveated for unforeseen events that may occur especially in a very unstable global political environment).
The boxing-in has created some rather obvious central problems for Labour. This is most significant on fiscal policy because Starmer and Reeves have ruled out some significant ways of raising more revenue and have scaled back borrowing ambitions. Yet people’s concern that nothing works was arguably a major reason for voters’ big rejection of the Tories. Making things (NHS, everything that would help relive pressure on the NHS, water, railways etc) work will require public investment and more daily spend.
This is of course why Labour has put growth in its shop window. But one policy factor that has contributed to the investment-productivity-growth anaemia that has bedevilled UK policy makers since the Finance Crisis is austerity. Coupled with some severe supply-side problems in UK industry (again the corollary of low investment), Labour’s paradox is that growth almost certainly requires a stronger fiscal response than is currently planned.
In this context, efforts to drive green investment, repair and improve public services and cut endemic air and water pollution will require political advocacy and Parliamentary action.
The following 7 rules of thumb may help:
1. It is mostly about Labour
Our Parliamentary system rewards a commons majority. It doesn’t matter all that much how large that majority is provided it’s big enough to withstand an inevitable rump of rebellious MPs and by-election erosion. But in this Parliament Labour has a whopping 174 seat majority, which means that, short of a very large back bench revolt, the government can do what it wants.
The House of Lords is able to propose changes to legislation and delay things passing, but does not have a veto; standing committees can scrutinise; bill committees can amend. But if Labour does not want to do it, it probably won’t happen.
Many in the CSO sector are charities and obliged to be politically impartial. And the sector would be unwise to ignore opposition parties as the wider politics of the Parliament may take unexpected turns. Plus increasing Labour’s ambition in key areas will require collaboration across the house. In this context we should:
Build on existing relationships with sympathetic Conservatives.
Start engaging with the Lib Dems and greens from day one.
But mostly focus on the government benches.
Where you place your emphasis is your business. But it really is mostly about Labour.
2. Labour’s Back Bench is the main Westminster opposition
In the early days of the government, expect a very high level of discipline across its 412 MPs. Newly elected MPs, many of them entirely new to the job, will be keen to impress and hopeful of getting some sort of role in the government.
So opposition may be overstating it, but across its vast swathes of MPs - many new, quite a lot younger than the average and some very sympathetic to causes - there are going to be issue enthusiasts who want to make their name as effective parliamentarians on your agenda. In addition, there will be others who’re vulnerable to local manifestations of national issues or have a small majority and suspect they may only be there for one term.
Help them! Make friends. Offer them palpable opportunities and plot for them a course of action that leads to them having an impact on your issues. Some may go on to break ranks or take further action, others will help if they end up on bill committees or might be drawn in private members bill ballots or use other tactics.
Also, if you have a grassroots strategy, local groups or some membership presence in constituencies, use this strategically.
3. Opposition Will Also Come From The Outside
A very key part of Labour’s agenda is investment in renewable energy and grid infrastructure to achieve its 2030 power decarbonisation target - something environment groups should back to the hilt as it’s challenging and important. In addition it will want to see heat decarbonised and homes retrofitted.
All of this leaves Labour open to attack from political opposition and vested interests who oppose this outside of Parliament and in the places in which the investments need to take place. This might be driven by the concerns of constituents (as newly-elected green MP Adam Ramsey has already demonstrated by calling for a pylon pause) or deliberately stirred up, especially using the sort of online tactics we’ve seen in the ULEZ debate and to some extent during the election campaign.
Mobilising grassroots power and influential voices in favour of things the government wants to do is quite a change of gear for many organisations, but it will be needed.
4. We can engage with the front bench
It almost doesn’t need saying, but we now have a government that shares a fundamental belief in public policy and the role of the state. Even if its policy agenda is not as adventurous as we’d like and has been boxed in by election pledges, we have a better starting point than we’ve had for some time. On many issues, we’re in the realm of making good things better rather than stopping bad things being worse.
This means that there’s a lot more value in building our relationships with front bench teams (relevant ministers and even secretaries of state) than there has been since the moment the 2019 Johnson project came off the rails (really with party-gate and Johnson’s resignation).
There’s an important differentiation between the executive of government and the government’s MPs. The latter might be willing to support campaigns and become active, the former - secretaries of state and ministers - are going to be campaign targets. But, there’s a high chance in this Parliament that we can at least offer them the ‘hero role’ - the opportunity to be the decision maker that pulls the relevant lever and helps bring about change - rather than being cast as the villain.
5. The local really matters
The efforts to build grassroots power remain really important. The most effective organisations in the coming years will be those that can combine an authentic local presence with well-executed Westminster strategy.
But it looks like Labour will accelerate devolution, for instance on transport. This is long overdue in the UK and something we should embrace. Hence, relationships with metro mayors and their teams and key local authorities is important.
In addition, alongside constituency Labour MPs, Linking up locally with city leaders and deliberately focussing our work in places where we know we have support from Labour-led local authorities, will be important. The metro mayors, though not generally popular with Starmer and team, will build their power with central government and could have significant influence. They certainly can’t be ignored.
6. Everything must be socially just
Labour does not have a green heart. Unlike the intrinsic love of nature among the one nation Conservatives (though fast being lost among the headbangers), there is no guiding political tradition of the natural world in the Labour movement (unless you go back to the 1920s).
Longer-term green and nature groups need Labour politicians to locate an intrinsic love of nature and develop a tradition, so they don’t just talk about family camping trips. This might come from proximate nature and universal access to biodiverse, green space.
But in the meantime, everything we do should be passed through the lens of social justice. Class is especially important to Starmer, Raynor and Phillipson and is an area of deep structural weakness in CSOs.
The environment sector should address this anyway due to the shockingly poor race and class diversity in our movement, but the more Labour sees middle class white dominated groups trying to block its growth-focussed infrastructure programmes, the less it will want to engage with us.
7. Business still matters
Having said all that, in a Parliament ultimately dependent on attracting private investment, business voices will carry a lot of sway. Correcting the UK’s growth, productivity and investment shortcomings (we’re the worst in the OECD for investment) means government will almost always want to ensure business is onside.
This does not mean cosying up with the fossil fuel industry. As far as we know, Labour will alienate this sector by preventing new oil licensing in the North Sea and increasing energy windfall taxes. But it does mean thinking about allying with and mobilising key industry voices. Think heat pumps and home decarbonisation, sustainable construction, industrial processes - especially steel - public transport and virtually any firm in an industry with high union density.