Labour's Strength

What does the surprise removal of the whip for the 7 King's Speech rebels say about the new Parliament?

The draconian nature of the suspension from the Labour Party of the seven MPs who rebelled to support an opposition motion on the two-child limit of Universal Credit has some lessons for anyone wanting to influence in the current Parliament.

Don’t Try to Ambush the Government Using the Opposition

As I said in my earlier post about influencing in this Parliament, Labour’s dominance is almost total. But if there’s going to be any concerted Parliamentary action to try and change the leadership’s mind, it definitely shouldn’t come via opposition motions and amendments.

Opposition MPs can play a role, via formal processes such as select and bill committees and by asking questions, but when it comes to legislating, the government is nearly always going to be able to get a large majority through the right lobby. Using opposition motions and amendments to rebel is really unlikely to succeed. And it may have the opposite effect of toxifying your cause.

At this point, it’s probably far better to engage in teasing out and building support for your aims on the government benches and engaging directly with ministers and civil servants to find out what, if any, appetite there is for taking action.

Choose Your Labour MP Champions Wisely

The presence of some of the previous Labour leader’s closest allies in Monday’s failed rebellion was red rag to a bull. Whatever the rights and wrongs of this, just don’t let your campaign or cause get stuck inside any internecine warfare in the Party. At the moment, there’s only going to be one winner.

Stephen Bush, the ever-astute Associate Editor at the FT has argued that, in withdrawing the whip from the 7 rebels, Starmer has already over-reached in the sense that he will almost certainly face larger rebellions and won’t be able to use the same sanction where more MPs are concerned.

But again, for now, this is a pretty potent show of strength and a sign that the leadership is intent on maintaining party discipline, so if you’re developing cause-related cohorts of MPs as part of an advocacy strategy, choose carefully.

There Will Be Rebellions; They Might Be Intentional

Labour’s boxing-in of itself on fiscal policy is going to create some fertile ground for changes in the government’s position as the external pressure - from voters who wanted change on public services, Party members who have strong social justice values and local Labour leaders picking up the pieces of broken systems - builds up. This will spill over into MPs’ inboxes and casework and will become inexorable.

For instance, while Labour is resisting reversing its decision to maintain the two-child limit on Universal Credit for now, the government is almost certain to have to stop resisting at some point. In fact, it may even have a plan to find the requisite fiscal headroom in the coming budget (oh look, more tax receipts and improved economic forecasts mean we can provide emergency funding for all eligible children this year etc).

It’s worth reading this thread by the newly-elected Torsten Bell MP, formerly the boss of the Resolution Foundation, the think tank that analyses household finances.

The two-child limit is a particularly egregious policy (I’ve personally written to my new Labour MP to ask that he supports getting rid of it) but it will not be the only instance of where an unstoppable external force that requires more government investment meets the immoveable object of the government’s fiscal position and it’s self-imposed rules.

The government will hope that pressure will build in a way that’s helpful. In the new Labour years, Blair and Brown used civil society and MP pressure to give it a mandate to go further on some issues, such as international development (to that end, policy-campaigns organisations will need to keep a weather eye on cooption).

Influence Through Authenticity

Really, the best way to be certain of having influence over the course of this Parliament is to remain faithful to your beneficiaries and those whose interest your charitable objectives seek to defend and increasingly empower them to stand at the forefront of your campaigns. The more Labour (and other) MPs hear from authentic voices in their constituencies on issues that matter, the more credible the cause will be and the more the pressure will build.